Tag Archives: dollar

Accendo Markets: will the Fed release the doves?

In the first of Accendo Markets‘ regular market commentary for Hot Commodity, Augustin Eden and Mike van Dulken discuss whether the Fed is having cold feet and why gold is good…

This week’s main event is sure to be this evening’s US Federal Reserve policy statement and whether it dares issue some form of dovish mea culpa regarding its December decision to hike, especially given the market turmoil that has greeted us in 2016. While credibility was on the line after such a protracted warm-up, it probably felt obliged to hike rates on US data improvement.

However, it at least has the option to tone down its opening message of 2016 (with no press conference or Q&A) about how many more hikes we might expect this year. From a lofty three, markets are now pricing in one at best. What’s clear is that while the US may have been ready, the global markets were not.

Will the Fed’s focus lie with the US economy’s continued recovery progress or recent financial market volatility? It should be the former, but the latter can’t be ignored. Arguments may dwell on how it was right to move then, but hold now.

Financial markets have neither enjoyed the second half of 2015, nor the tricky start to 2016, but the same needn’t necessarily be said about all asset classes. While equities are hindered by persistent commodity price weakness after an 18-month rout, and a slowing and troubled China, many ask whether the worst is priced in and the doom and gloom overbaked.

So far so gold…

What’s this got to do with the price of gold? Well, it’s having a cracking start to the year, bouncing from 5/6yr lows on talk of output having peaked. Also, as a safe-haven, it needn’t worry about US dollar strength. If people are that fearful (unless they’re Warren Buffett) they’ll probably be yellow-metal bound. The zero-interest bearing asset has seen rising demand from market volatility and technical drivers as well as hopes the Fed will go all dovish on us after December’s ‘mistake’ to raise rates from record lows.

If this does happen, we could well see a pullback in recent USD strength. It’s almost as if the dollar has been simply resting near its 2015 all-time highs, waiting for its next pointer, which could well be revised US monetary policy guidance for 2016. There’ll arguably be a knock-on for the entire commodities sector from that. Even oil could gush a little higher from the FX benefit, despite a more meaningful recovery surely needing moves to cut output and reverse its own supply glut.

This commentary was provided exclusively for Hot Commodity by Mike and Augustin at Accendo Markets – https://www.accendomarkets.com.

Do you agree with Mike and Augustin or do you have a different take on the Fed’s next move? Email info@hotcommodity.co.uk with your comments.

Axa IM’s Nicolas Trindade talks US versus eurozone debt, EMs and more

Axa Investment Management: Nicolas Trindade

In the latest in Hot Commodity‘s investor series, I chat to Nicolas Trindade, manager of the Axa Global Credit fund and Axa Sterling Credit Short Duration fund.

In an era of incredibly low bank rates in the Western world, bonds have been a popular route of investment for anyone looking for healthier returns. But with the Fed having kicked off its monetary tightening last week (and the Bank of England set to follow suit next year), is it game over for credit funds? Nicolas provides the answers…

“I think one of the biggest issues is that we’re victims of our own success,” said Nicolas.

“Investors have become used to double-digit returns and that’s not going to be the case any more – 2016 will see single-digit returns.”

Rising base rates inevitably push down bond prices, as investors start to look elsewhere. But Nicolas sees some tailwinds to counter the rising yields triggered by the central bank action: “credit spreads are tightening, which should counter the headwinds to some extent”. And he does emphasise that we’re still set to see growth, just slower growth.

The value of the Axa Sterling Credit Short Duration fund has risen from around £200m at the start of the year to £270m. It tends to invest in sterling-denominated debt that matures in less than five years, which Nicolas says provides some protection against rising interest rates.

“I think there will be more demand [for the fund] as I expect the Bank of England to hike rates in May next year – earlier than market consensus – which will impact returns,” said Nicolas. (Shorter duration bond funds are expected to fare better as rates rise). “It’s a low risk, conservative portfolio.”

Meanwhile the Axa Global Credit fund invests in corporate bonds, mostly denominated in dollars, sterling and euros, weighing in at around $100m (£67m) for most of this year.

Nicolas says that his current bias is towards the eurozone market, as it is not as advanced in the cycle as US corporate bonds.

“The US has been reissuing debt to satiate shareholders. Leverage for US corporates has increased, while in the eurozone it has stayed the same,” he said.

“25 per cent of issuance in euros is from US corporates as the funding costs are cheaper in Europe.”

Although he expects to see some changes in 2016.

“I expect US corporates to continue re-leveraging but less quickly,” he said. “The Fed started tightening last week and we expect three more rate hikes in 2016, so US corporates will start to be less and less aggressive.

“Meanwhile eurozone corporates will push up leverage, as they are under a lot of pressure to return money to shareholders. At the moment they are sitting on a lot of cash.”

Where does sterling sit?

“There’s not much supply in the sterling market,” he added. “A lot of householders including Royal Mail and Nationwide have issued bonds in euros, as it opens them up to a larger investor base and the costs are cheaper.”

And what about emerging markets?

“I’m quite cautious on emerging markets,” said Nicolas. “You now have to divide them between oil producing countries and oil consuming countries – the oil producers are obviously struggling due to the low oil price.

“We have exposure to some investment grade companies in emerging markets but no exposure to high-yield emerging markets and I’m not planning to increase that.”

Do you agree/disagree with Nicolas? Email info@hotcommodity.co.uk with your views.